Welcome to this week’s essential overview of the continent’s political and economic developments. Here’s what made headlines:
- An analysis of the Africa Forward summit and statements from Emmanuel Macron.
- The Africa CEO Forum’s call for Africa’s private sector to scale up.
- The enduring silence on Paul Biya’s vice-presidency and the growing list of hopefuls.
- Why Senegal’s constitutional reform could primarily benefit Ousmane Sonko.
- Insights into Philippe Lalliot, France’s new ambassador to Morocco.
Enjoy the read:
1. Emmanuel Macron redefines French African policy in Nairobi
Key takeaway. French President Emmanuel Macron offered an extensive interview ahead of the Africa Forward summit in Nairobi (May 11-12). His diagnosis was clear: the traditional paradigm of official development assistance is obsolete. He asserted, “We are no longer in a logic of aid,” instead advocating for “solidarity investment.” This message was aimed directly at private markets, which he believes are hindered by unfavorable credit ratings and an exaggerated perception of risk in Africa.
The event. This summit, the first in the Franco-African series to be held outside West Africa, convened approximately thirty heads of state in Nairobi, with Kenyan President William Ruto co-hosting. Macron announced 23 billion euros in investment commitments, with 14 billion euros originating from France (combining public and private sectors). Proparco, the private sector arm of the AFD, committed 500 million euros in a single day, nearly half of its annual African allocation.
A strategic shift. The French president swiftly moved past the Sahelian issue – stating, “no offense” – but the choice of Nairobi speaks volumes: following disruptions in relations with Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, Paris is now pivoting towards anglophone East Africa. President Ruto benefits from this partnership a year before Kenya’s presidential elections, while Macron seeks a credible ally to champion the reform of the international financial architecture at the G7 summit in June.
The numbers. Official development assistance from OECD countries has plummeted by over a third in two years. France, specifically, has reduced its allocation by approximately 2 billion euros. This void is what Macron aims to fill with private capital, a gamble whose concrete results are yet to be fully demonstrated.
2. “We must no longer wait to be swindled”: Africa’s private sector urged to scale up at the Africa CEO Forum
Key insights. The 13th Africa CEO Forum commenced on Thursday in Kigali, centered around the theme “scale or fail.” Addressing 2,800 decision-makers and eight heads of state, the message was unequivocal: national African markets are too fragmented, intra-African trade remains insufficient, and the continent must cease its uncoordinated approach to economic development.
Why it matters. The challenge is systemic. Without continental champions capable of asserting influence internationally, Africa risks remaining an exporter of raw potential – minerals, talent, capital – rather than capturing the inherent value within. Eight years after its launch, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) project remains incomplete, plagued by persistent regulatory barriers, elevated logistical costs, and still marginal intra-African trade.
A notable quote. Rwandan President Paul Kagame stated: “On one hand, they come to lecture us on human rights, and on the other, they come to take our minerals. We must no longer wait to be swindled.”
3. Paul Biya’s vice-presidency: a prolonged silence amidst growing contenders
What we observe. The decree re-establishing the Cameroonian vice-presidency has been promulgated, yet the position remains vacant. In Yaoundé, speculation is rife, as reported by Yves Plumey Bobo. The list of potential candidates grows longer the more Paul Biya delays his decision, including prominent figures such as Paul Atanga Nji, Louis-Paul Motaze, Philémon Yang, and Oswald Baboké.
The impasse. Franck Biya, the president’s son, was expected to be appointed shortly after the April decree. His inaugural official duty was slated to be the reception of Pope Leo XIV. A press release was prepared for broadcast on CRTV but was never issued. According to our insights, Chantal Biya intervened at the last minute, reportedly preferring to promote her own son, Franck Hertz. Behind the changing list of names, the ongoing struggle for presidential succession unfolds in the shadows.
4. Senegal’s constitutional reform: a potential boon for Ousmane Sonko
What we know : An initial draft of constitutional amendments, released on April 27, could significantly reconfigure power at the top of Senegal’s executive branch, largely favoring Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko, as analyzed by Mehdi Ba. Two pivotal changes are proposed: the president would now determine national policy “in consultation” with the prime minister, and the prime minister would gain an independent right to refer matters to the future Constitutional Court, irrespective of presidential consent. Furthermore, President Bassirou Diomaye Faye would be prohibited from leading a political party or campaigning, while Sonko would retain full autonomy to remain at the helm of Pastef.
Why it’s significant : An institutional risk looms. Article 49 remains unaltered, meaning President Faye could still dismiss Prime Minister Sonko at any moment. However, should the tensions between the two men, already apparent for months, lead to such a scenario, Senegal would face an unprecedented political cohabitation: a constitutionally empowered leader of the parliamentary majority forced into opposition from the prime minister’s office.
5. Philippe Lalliot: France’s new ambassador to Morocco
Macron’s selection. Philippe Lalliot, 60, is set to succeed Christophe Lecourtier as France’s ambassador to Morocco—a decision personally made by President Macron. Jassim Ahdani outlines his profile: a product of the Quai d’Orsay, currently serving as director of the Crisis and Support Center (CDCS), he arrives with a background as a crisis manager rather than a political figure, aligning with France’s evolving diplomatic approach towards Rabat.
Dual challenges. Lalliot inherits a bilateral relationship that is warming but remains incomplete – an ongoing friendship treaty negotiation and a state visit by Mohammed VI to France still without an official date. Simultaneously, he faces a substantial economic foundation: France accounts for nearly 30% of the total stock of foreign direct investment in Morocco. Paris aims to accelerate engagement, while Rabat prefers a measured, step-by-step progression.
