The countdown has begun for the Cameroonian economy. The Hilli Episeyo, a floating liquefaction unit stationed off the coast of Kribi since 2018, is set to exit national waters in July 2026. This departure marks the conclusion of the contract between its owner, Golar, and the Société Nationale des Hydrocarbures (SNH). In its economic review for the first quarter of 2026, the National Economic and Financial Committee (CNEF) identifies this withdrawal as a pivotal factor in the anticipated economic slowdown, alongside geopolitical tensions and underperformance in several key export sectors.
According to the detailed forecasts from the CNEF, Cameroon’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by approximately 3.2% in 2026, a decrease from 3.5% the previous year, and then further to 3.1% in 2027. An overarching view within the same document presents a slightly more optimistic trajectory, predicting 3.3% followed by 3.2%. Under both scenarios, the underlying logic remains consistent: the extractive sector is expected to depress overall growth, contributing a negative 0.4 percentage points during each of these two fiscal periods. Petroleum GDP, encompassing all hydrocarbon-related activities, is anticipated to fall by 16.1% in 2026 and by a further 18% in 2027.
LNG sector already facing decline before vessel’s exit
The cessation of the Hilli Episeyo’s operations arrives at a time when the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is already showing signs of weakness. Revenues generated from LNG exports amounted to 350.2 billion FCFA in 2025, a drop from 381 billion in 2024, 421 billion in 2023, and a peak of 622 billion in 2022. This represents an 8.1% decline year-on-year. This trend continued into the beginning of the year: during the first quarter of 2026, Cameroon’s total exports decreased by 23.6% to 606.9 billion FCFA, with LNG exports plummeting by 28.4% and crude oil exports by 14.4%.
Despite the decline, LNG still accounted for a significant 11.4% of export revenues in 2025. The withdrawal of this floating production unit thus deprives Yaoundé of a crucial economic asset precisely when other vital sectors are also struggling. Over the same period, sales of cocoa and its derivatives plunged by 37.7%, timber sales fell by 11.5%, aluminum by 53.7%, and raw rubber by 16.7%. The combined effect of these sectoral setbacks amplifies the potential impact of the impending gas shock.
Current account under pressure and delicate budgetary choices
Cameroon’s macroeconomic stability is expected to absorb a significant blow. The CNEF forecasts a current account deficit of 5.4% of GDP in 2026, rising to 6.1% in 2027, compared to an estimated 3.2% in 2025. The budgetary deficit is projected to follow a similar trajectory, reaching 1.7% and then 2.1% of GDP. These projections also factor in a slowdown in global trade, increasing freight costs, and a modest growth in public revenues.
Furthermore, rising global oil prices present a classic dilemma for the executive branch. Maintaining current fuel prices at the pump would necessitate increasing fuel subsidies, incurring an immediate budgetary cost. Conversely, adjusting retail prices upwards would likely reignite inflation and erode household purchasing power. While the CNEF does not offer a definitive solution, it underscores the extremely limited room for maneuver available to policymakers.
Yoyo-Yolanda and new blocks: solutions without immediate impact
SNH is actively pursuing a strategy to diversify its upstream portfolio in preparation for the post-Hilli Episeyo era. A key initiative is the cross-border Yoyo-Yolanda field, shared with Equatorial Guinea, which boasts estimated geological resources of approximately 2.5 trillion cubic feet and requires an investment nearing 4 billion dollars. However, the project’s timeline remains contingent on the finalization of technical and commercial agreements, securing necessary financing, and the construction of dedicated infrastructure.
Concurrently, the state-owned company continues to award new exploration blocks in the Rio del Rey and Douala-Kribi-Campo basins. Nevertheless, entering into production sharing contract negotiations does not guarantee the discovery of commercially viable reserves nor rapid production. The primary risk, therefore, lies in the duration of this transition period: the longer the gap between the floating unit’s departure and the activation of new production capacities, the more entrenched the negative contribution of the extractive sector to Cameroon’s economic growth will become. Despite announced initiatives, no immediate short-term compensation for the projected decline in LNG exports is anticipated.
