The promising start to the 2026-27 cocoa export season—with nearly one million tonnes already sold under forward contracts—could face disruption due to the anticipated arrival of El Niño in July, warn industry insiders and agricultural commodity traders. To manage supply, the Council of Coffee and Cocoa (CCC), headquartered in Abidjan, has raised its premium on additional sales from zero to $135 per tonne above the futures price, according to sector reports.
Market momentum meets climate uncertainty
Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s top cocoa producer, is seeing robust demand, with projections suggesting a tightening market once the new harvesting season begins on September 1. « We’ve already sold between 950,000 and 1 million tonnes for the upcoming campaign, but we’ve opted to slow the pace and exercise caution, » shared a source within the CCC.
Trading firms anticipate exports of 1.1 to 1.2 million tonnes, attributing the higher premiums demanded by the CCC to market confidence. « The market conditions allow them to be more assertive. There’s no need to lower the premium to secure contracts, » explained a cocoa trading executive.
El Niño: a looming threat to cocoa production
However, this positive momentum could be derailed by El Niño, which threatens to bring drought conditions to major cocoa-growing regions, including Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria. Such weather patterns could severely disrupt production cycles and output levels.
The real challenge: aging plantations and input shortages
Despite these concerns, many exporters point to deeper, more immediate issues. « I don’t see El Niño as the biggest threat. The real challenge is the lack of fertilizers and phytosanitary products—aging cocoa plantations across Côte d’Ivoire are highly vulnerable to disease, » noted the director of an Abidjan-based export firm.