The administration of former US President Donald Trump is weighing the possibility of expanding military operations in Africa, with Mali emerging as a potential new target. Reports indicate that Washington is exploring options to target the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an Al-Qaïda-affiliated group operating in the country, nearly four years after France’s withdrawal.
While no final decision has been made, internal discussions within the Trump administration are underway. Sebastian Gorka, a counterterrorism advisor to the National Security Council, is reportedly pushing for military intervention. However, other officials remain cautious, questioning the long-term effectiveness of such an operation. If implemented, this would mark the eighth country targeted by US strikes since the start of Trump’s second term.
A spokesperson for the White House declined to confirm the possibility of strikes but emphasized Washington’s commitment to supporting African nations in combating jihadist groups. The administration is actively encouraging countries in North and West Africa to bolster their security capabilities by acquiring US-made equipment and services. A senior official described the terrorism threat in the Sahel as a « multinational challenge ».
JNIM’s rising influence and potential risks of US intervention
The JNIM has grown into one of the most formidable armed groups in West Africa, with operations spanning multiple coastal nations. Security analysts warn that a US-led military campaign could have unintended consequences, potentially undermining efforts to deradicalize and dismantle the group. Corinne Dufka, an independent Sahel expert, cautioned that eliminating JNIM leaders might backfire, reinforcing the group’s extremist ideology rather than weakening it.
Critics also highlight the historical failures of past interventions in the region. France’s decade-long military presence in Mali, followed by five years of Russian support, did little to curb the spread of jihadist activity. Some fear that US strikes could inadvertently strengthen rival factions, including the Islamic State in the Sahel, which may exploit the JNIM’s weakened state to expand its influence.
Another major concern is the potential for escalation with Russian forces already deployed in Mali. Russia has offered security assistance to several African nations, including Burkina Faso, Guinea, and the Central African Republic, but its effectiveness remains questionable. A US official noted, « We hope African nations recognize the limitations of Russia’s counterterrorism efforts. »
