- Security
The ongoing RDC Rwanda peace process has reached a “stalemate,” according to Jason K. Stearns, an associate professor at Simon Fraser University. Speaking on Monday during a Space event hosted by journalist Stanis Bujakera Tshiamala, Stearns highlighted that neither the Doha-Montreux nor the Washington initiatives have yielded any significant progress over the past year.
Insights on Montreux Negotiations
Stearns noted a distinct lack of movement since the Montreux talks, where, he observed, “major disagreements” continue to plague discussions between the Congolese government and the AFC/M23 rebel group.
Regarding the agreement forged between Kinshasa and Kigali under Washington’s mediation, he acknowledged that while “many agreements” have been signed, their “implementation poses a real problem.” He drew a parallel with American diplomatic efforts in other regions, such as Iran under the Trump administration, suggesting that while the US administration “invests heavily in diplomacy,” it risks settling for “beautiful declarations and MOUs” (Memoranda of Understanding) without achieving concrete implementation. For Stearns, the crucial challenge remains to “move beyond these framework agreements for a true compromise,” a solution that, in his view, “is not yet clear.”
The Elusive Compromise
Stearns reiterated that the fundamental compromise sought between Kinshasa and Kigali mirrors those discussed in all previous accords, including the comprehensive and inclusive agreement during the 2003 transition period. This involves the withdrawal of Rwandan troops in exchange for a Congolese commitment to combat the FDLR. He emphasized that this “same deal” has seen minimal progress in its execution.
Concerning the M23, he pointed to a complete absence of compromise. The Congolese side continues to favor a “military solution,” while the rebel movement has declared its intention to maintain its presence for “another ten years.” The researcher concluded that “we are very, very far from success” in this regard.
Factors Hindering Progress
When questioned about the reasons for this impasse, Jason Stearns first commended the Trump administration’s unique contribution compared to earlier mediations (from the East African Community and later the African Union via Angolan efforts): the application of genuine pressure, which he felt was absent in previous attempts. He assessed that “sanctions on Rwanda are more aggressive than ever before,” even surpassing measures taken since the major Congolese wars began in 1996.
However, he identified two significant shortcomings:
- Lack of International Cohesion: Washington is sanctioning Rwanda without the participation of European partners, who are among Kigali’s primary financial backers. He illustrated this disparity by noting that Rwandan President Paul Kagame continues to sign agreements, including with American basketball teams, which, in Stearns’ opinion, does not reflect a leader under severe international pressure.
- Absence of a Clear Global Strategy: According to American diplomats cited by Stearns, Washington does not contemplate a military solution, a stance he supports. Nevertheless, the strategy for compromise, which should underpin the pressure exerted on Kigali, remains undefined.
Rejected Montreux Proposal
The researcher further disclosed that US diplomats reportedly presented a “vague” compromise between the M23 and the Democratic Republic of Congo at Montreux, which was never made public. This proposal, based on Stearns’ understanding of the situation – though he did not have access to the text itself – would have offered the rebel movement a form of “partial integration.” Both parties ultimately rejected this proposition.
Finally, Jason Stearns concluded that the most significant missing element today is equivalent diplomatic pressure on Kinshasa. In his view, the RDC “has not really faced diplomatic pressure from the United States” thus far, unlike Rwanda.