Guinea-Bissau’s military junta is pressing ahead with a sweeping disarmament campaign in Bissau, and the fallout is already reshaping the country’s political landscape. Weapons have reportedly been found in shipping containers and private homes, with searches targeting equipment allegedly tied to armed elements linked to former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló. The operation lands just weeks before the presidential election scheduled for 6 December, while the exiled former head of state, now based in Morocco, insists he will return and run. So far, the junta has refused to let him back in, citing security concerns.
Weapons stashes and the hunt across the capital
Security forces are continuing to comb through several districts of Bissau in search of hidden weapons and ammunition. Containers and residential properties are being inspected as part of a drive to disarm groups seen as capable of threatening stability in the capital.
The military authorities say they want to regain control of weapons circulating outside official structures. The operation unfolds in a country where the army has played a central role in political crises for decades, and where coups have repeatedly derailed democratic processes.
Available information suggests some of the weapons being sought are attributed to elements linked to former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló. It is a politically sensitive accusation that will need to be backed by evidence clearly establishing the origin of the weapons and the identity of those holding them.
Embaló’s bid to return and run for office
Behind these security operations lies a major political deadline: the presidential election set for 6 December 2026. After the coup that toppled him in November 2025, Umaro Sissoco Embaló has been living in exile in Morocco.
Yet the former president has announced his intention to return to Guinea-Bissau and seek the highest office again. In late September, he declared he would be a candidate in the presidential race.
His return was initially expected on 4 October. But the military hierarchy decided to block his entry. The junta says the security conditions required for his return are not in place, citing the need to protect public order and social stability.
Embaló, for his part, maintains his determination to take part in the vote and is calling for his candidacy to be examined by judicial authorities in an impartial and independent manner.
A candidacy that unsettles the military transition
The standoff between the former president and the new authorities is no longer confined to the question of his return. It could now play out directly on the electoral battlefield.
The junta has committed to holding elections aimed at restoring civilian rule. The presidential and legislative votes are officially set for 6 December.
But the Embaló case puts the military in a delicate position: how to organise an election meant to mark the end of the transition while preventing the former president ousted by the coup from returning to campaign?
For now, the authorities have officially justified his entry ban on security grounds. It would therefore be premature to speak of a candidacy legally rejected by the junta. However, his physical return to the country is indeed blocked by the military authorities, which directly undermines his ability to campaign on the ground.
Weapons as a political issue as much as a security one
It is in this context that the seizure operations take on an added dimension. By searching for weapons potentially linked to networks close to the former government, the junta says it wants to prevent any threat to public safety.
But these operations come at the precise moment when political rivalry over the presidential election is intensifying. The question will therefore be whether the disarmament drive is purely a security measure or whether it will also affect the political balance of power before the vote.
The military authorities will need to demonstrate that the searches and seizures rest on transparent procedures and are not being used to sideline certain political opponents.
A transition under close scrutiny
The junta has already pushed through a new Constitution in August following a referendum strongly contested by parts of the opposition and civil society. The new text notably strengthens presidential powers.
In this climate, the 6 December presidential election represents a crucial moment for the country’s institutional future. Embaló’s possible return, his candidacy and the conditions under which other contenders can campaign will all be watched closely.
In Bissau, the military continues to search, seize and disarm. But behind the inspected containers and the weapons being sought, a broader battle is now taking shape: the fight over control of the transition and the conditions under which Guinea-Bissau will — or will not — return to civilian rule.
With two months to go before the vote, the standoff between the junta and Umaro Sissoco Embaló is only just beginning.