A new study by the Policy Center for the New South (PCNS) warns that Morocco is the North African economy most exposed to a potential oil price surge triggered by tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
The collective work, titled “Hormuz and the Invisible Fractures: the Price of a Distant War,” examines the geopolitical, economic and security consequences of the conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel, as well as the mounting pressures along the strategic chokepoint.
Bringing together contributions from international experts including Abdelhak Bassou, Ferid Belhaj, Ian Lesser, Hafez Ghanem, Hinh T. Dinh and Rida Lyammouri, the volume explores the war’s impact across various regions, with a special focus on Morocco, Africa and countries of the Global South.
According to the authors, the crisis goes far beyond a regional confrontation. It exposes the vulnerabilities of a globalised economy heavily reliant on the energy, trade and logistics flows that pass through the Strait of Hormuz — a vital waterway for a significant share of the world’s oil, gas, fertiliser and commercial shipping.
One chapter, written by economist Hinh T. Dinh, models the effect of a 20 percent increase in oil prices on the economies of Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt. Using an input-output economic framework, the study finds that Morocco would suffer the most severe consequences, with particular strain on agriculture, construction, transport and other energy-dependent sectors.
By contrast, Egypt would partly benefit from higher oil revenues, while Tunisia would see a broadly neutral overall impact — despite significant sectoral disparities.
+ A turning point for the international order +
Beyond the economic dimension, several authors argue that the 2026 war marks a pivotal moment in the evolution of the global order. Ferid Belhaj contends that the conflict illustrates the growing fragmentation of the international system and the erosion of traditional cooperation and deterrence mechanisms. Marcus Vinicius de Freitas, meanwhile, sees the emergence of a more multipolar world where conflicts are managed rather than resolved.
In another contribution, Ian Lesser analyses the war’s effect on transatlantic relations, concluding that it has deepened divisions between the United States and many European countries over the use of force and international crisis management.
The book also highlights risks to African energy security, Sahel stability and South American economies, while pointing to the rising importance of strategic minerals in shaping new global geopolitical dynamics.
According to the PCNS, this collective effort aims to contribute to the debate on the changing international order and the strategies states must adopt to face crises that could disrupt supply chains, energy markets and geopolitical balances for years to come.
