The anticipated divergence between President Diomaye Faye and Ousmane Sonko has indeed materialized in Senegal. Following his dismissal by the President, Sonko has now consolidated his position within the National Assembly.
Had Ousmane Sonko possessed greater foresight, the National Assembly would have presented itself as the perfect sanctuary from the outset, allowing him to patiently await the 2029 elections. This strategy would have been particularly potent given his party, Pastef’s, overwhelming victory in the November 2024 legislative elections.
Sonko likely believed that the most effective way to prevent President Faye from altering his course or developing a fondness for the presidential office was to maintain a close watch over him. He aimed to directly share executive powers with Diomaye Faye, who, at least initially, seemed content to play a more ceremonial role. However, as Machiavelli once warned, power transforms, and those who enable another’s rise to kingship often hasten their own downfall.
The inevitable clash, regrettably, has come to pass!
Senegal’s presidential system inherently centralizes authority, leaving little room for any figure beyond the Head of State. Even an exceptionally influential Prime Minister ultimately functions as merely a first among equals.
Sonko soon found his position within the government increasingly restrictive. This was compounded by the Supreme Court’s refusal on July 1, 2025, to overturn the ruling that rendered him ineligible for the 2029 elections. Consequently, Sonko’s political prospects grew dim. Furthermore, he perceived President Faye as indifferent to his mounting challenges. This ignited the dormant political strategist within Sonko, prompting him to react decisively. With traditional institutional avenues closing, he chose to reassert himself through populist agitation, occasionally pushing boundaries, as seen in the circumstances surrounding his takeover of the National Assembly. This legislative body now serves as his stronghold, secured by sheer numbers, seemingly without fear of potential misconduct, an accusation leveled by Senegal’s diminished opposition. Only Diomaye Faye holds the power to consult the Constitutional Council regarding the legality of this Assembly takeover, but he has opted for inaction thus far.
President Diomaye Faye’s calculated inaction
In the land of Lat Dior Diop, the revered King of Cayor, political dynamics are rarely straightforward. (It’s worth noting that Lat Dior Diop was a prominent figure in Senegal’s mid-19th-century resistance against colonial encroachment.) Returning to our present focus, simply reviewing constitutional articles and subsequent laws offers little insight into the current unfolding drama. To paraphrase Senegal’s national motto, there are two key players and one ultimate objective. President Diomaye Faye, known for his shrewdness, and Ousmane Sonko, the “Djambar” or “hurricane,” are these two central figures. Their shared goal is the 2029 presidential election.
These two political protagonists wield distinct advantages. President Bassirou Diomaye Faye commands the established state institutions and the legal framework. Ousmane Sonko, conversely, relies on the formidable strength of his committed partisans within a highly organized party, along with a willingness to transgress norms without hesitation.
Strategic deployment of power: Faye vs. Sonko
Ousmane Sonko, through his control of the National Assembly, undeniably holds a significant power base. However, its effectiveness is undermined by several factors: the methods used for its acquisition, the looming threat of dissolution, and, most critically, the potential charge of malfeasance should the Constitutional Council deem Sonko’s re-entry as a deputy illegal following a presidential referral.
Meanwhile, President Diomaye Faye appears to be exercising patience. Having seemingly shed the burden of Sonko’s direct presence, he, alongside his new Prime Minister Ahmadou Al Aminou Lô, is focused on stabilizing economic affairs and engaging with international financial institutions. He undoubtedly anticipates a future confrontation and is, by all indications, meticulously preparing for it, supported by a strong inner circle.