As Cameroon gears up for the 2027 double elections, economist Serge Alain Godong delivers a blunt assessment of the nation’s political landscape.
Drawing on the theory of games and the prisoner’s dilemma, Godong argues that Maurice Kamto’s 2018 defeat was inevitable—and his prospects in 2027 remain dim. In a sharp analysis, he paints a picture of a system in decay, where voters cling to familiarity over the promise of change.
« The openly crumbling four-decade regime is reshaping the dynamics of stability and transformation in Cameroon’s public sphere,» Godong writes. His starting point? The 2018 election. « After the initial shock of Kamto’s disputed victory claim, Paul Biya’s re-election and the neutralization of the MRC left most Cameroonians resigned to the status quo at Etoudi Palace.»
Why voters prefer the devil they know
Godong’s argument hinges on two core assumptions: humans are rational actors, and they crave certainty. An election, he posits, is a contract for the future—one where citizens must weigh risk against reward. Yet Kamto, he contends, cannot offer a more compelling bargain than the incumbent.
« The 8.5 million Cameroonians expected to vote in 2027 won’t back Kamto unless they’re convinced he’ll secure their interests better than Biya,» Godong asserts. He estimates 16 million « winners »—civil servants, formal private-sector workers, and professionals—who collectively control 1.5 trillion FCFA in annual income. « These are the voters who, knowing the stakes, will cast their ballots for the RDPC,» he notes.
Enter the prisoner’s dilemma: without clear evidence of a superior alternative, the public defaults to the known. « Cameroonians recognize the current system’s flaws—but many still prefer its flawed stability over an uncertain equilibrium,» Godong explains.
The Bamiléké factor and Cameroon’s economic Darwinism
Godong shifts focus to what he calls the « Bamiléké problem », citing historian Meredith Terretta’s distinction between gung (territory) and lepue (freedom). For the Grassfields elite, he argues, survival depends on cutthroat economic Darwinism. « Kamto isn’t seen as an alternative—he’s a specter of chaos,» Godong claims. « To his critics, he embodies a malignant force bent on dismantling their world.»
The analyst paints a bleak portrait of a « feed-on-each-other » system: « Everyone is complicit in small-time graft, nibbling from their neighbor’s plate. Winners are those who ‘eat’; losers, those left hungry.»
A future defined by urgency and economic warfare
Godong’s conclusion is stark: « Whichever candidate prevails won’t have the luxury of delay or half-measures.» He urges rapid redistribution, a laser focus on growth (targeting 6%), deficit reduction, and a scorched-earth fight against corruption. « The political game will grow less passive, less extractive,» he warns. « Cameroon needs a strong, decisive Paul Biya to steer the post-transition era.»
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The road ahead: growth or gridlock?
For Godong, Cameroon stands at a crossroads. The 2027 elections won’t just test leadership—they’ll reveal whether the nation can break free from its rentier mentality and embrace bold reforms. « The clock is ticking,» he stresses. « The next administration must act fast, or risk collapse.»
