In Mali, the blockade enforced by the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadist group, has escalated dramatically over the past weekend. At least ten passenger buses were set ablaze along the critical Ségou-Bamako corridor, the main supply route connecting the capital to eastern regions. Simultaneously, electrical infrastructure linked to the Manantali hydroelectric dam in the Kayes region came under targeted attack and was destroyed. While Malian forces continue operations across multiple fronts, they have yet to break the economic stranglehold gripping the country.
Manantali: the silent battleground of a war of attrition
The assault on Manantali is far from incidental. The dam, jointly managed with Mauritania and Senegal under the Senegal River Basin Development Authority (OMVS), serves as one of Mali’s primary pillars of electricity. By targeting its transmission lines, JNIM is no longer merely challenging security forces—it is striking at the very backbone of urban life, where power cuts immediately paralyze public services, businesses, and industries. The attack underscores a deliberate shift in tactics, transitioning from territorial control to economic suffocation.
This strategy has unfolded over weeks, marked by systematic strikes on fuel convoys arriving from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. The jihadists aim to weaponize fuel shortages, betting on eroding public support for the transitional government led by General Assimi Goïta. Bamako, once relatively insulated from the worst effects, now finds itself at the epicenter of this grueling battle.
Army’s efforts and fragile supply lines
In response, Malian military command reports ongoing ground and air operations across several regions. Military escorts have enabled hundreds of fuel tankers to reach Bamako in recent days, temporarily easing pressure on gas stations under siege. Yet this logistical reprieve remains fragile: each convoy demands significant resources, and the long-term security of national roads appears increasingly unattainable.
The Malian Armed Forces now face a double bind. In the west and central zones, JNIM intensifies ambushes and infrastructure sabotage. To the north, in the Kidal region, tensions remain frozen in a precarious stalemate, with fresh clashes looming against rebel factions of the Permanent Strategic Framework. Bamako’s government is thus navigating two distinct fronts, with dwindling human and material reserves.
A regional crisis unfolding
The Malian blockade has spilled beyond national borders. Neighboring nations—particularly Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d’Ivoire—watch with growing concern as West African trade corridors deteriorate. The slowdown in goods movement is straining ports in Dakar and Abidjan, where a significant share of traffic once fed the Sahelian hinterland. The Alliance of Sahel States, comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has yet to forge a unified counter-strategy against the jihadist-led economic warfare.
The Manantali attack also raises urgent questions about shared OMVS infrastructure. Further damage could directly disrupt electricity supply to Senegal and Mauritania, turning a Malian crisis into a regional emergency. External partners—whether development donors or military suppliers—now face a delicate choice: uphold support for Bamako’s sovereignty or prioritize protection of cross-border critical infrastructure.
On the ground, the gap between the army’s operational claims and the stark reality of a capital under siege highlights the unprecedented nature of this conflict phase. JNIM’s ambitions have evolved: it no longer seeks to hold land—it aims to strangle a state.
