In Mali, the blockade enforced by the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadist group, has escalated to a critical phase. Over the weekend, at least ten passenger buses were set ablaze along the Ségou-Bamako corridor, a vital supply route linking the capital to eastern regions. Simultaneously, attackers targeted and destroyed key electrical infrastructure tied to the Manantali hydroelectric dam in the Kayes region. While Malian armed forces continue counteroffensives on multiple fronts, the economic stranglehold around Bamako shows no signs of easing.
Manantali dam: a strategic target in a war of attrition
The strike on Manantali’s power lines is far from incidental. Operated under a tripartite agreement with Mauritania and Senegal through the Senegal River Basin Development Organization (OMVS), the dam is a linchpin of Mali’s urban electricity grid. By dismantling its transmission lines, JNIM is no longer merely challenging security forces—it is undermining the very backbone of the nation’s economy. Power cuts ripple through public services, commercial hubs, and industrial zones, paralyzing daily life in the capital.
This campaign mirrors weeks of systematic interdiction against fuel convoys entering from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. The jihadists are weaponizing fuel shortages, betting on eroding public trust in the transitional government led by General Assimi Goïta. Bamako, once largely shielded from frontline violence, now finds itself at the heart of a grinding war of exhaustion.
Army’s response and fragile supply respite
In response, Malian military command asserts ongoing ground and aerial operations across several regions. Recent weeks have seen military escorts escort hundreds of fuel tankers into Bamako, temporarily easing the strain on gas stations. Yet this relief is fleeting. Each convoy demands substantial resources, and securing national highways over the long term remains an elusive goal for now.
The Armed Forces of Mali (FAMa) face a dual threat. In central and western zones, JNIM has intensified ambushes and infrastructure sabotage. To the north, in the Kidal region, tensions remain locked in a tense stalemate, with fresh clashes expected against the Permanent Strategic Framework rebel alliance. Bamako is stretched thin across two volatile fronts, its human and material reserves dwindling.
Regional ripple effects of Mali’s blockade
The blockade has spilled beyond Mali’s borders. Neighbouring economies—especially Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d’Ivoire—are feeling the pinch as trade corridors in West Africa constrict. Reduced cargo flows are straining Dakar and Abidjan’s ports, which traditionally handle significant trans-Saharan traffic. The Sahel States Confederation, uniting Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has yet to mount a unified response to the economic warfare being waged by jihadist factions.
The attack on Manantali also raises urgent concerns over shared OMVS infrastructure. Further damage could directly disrupt electricity supply to Senegal and Mauritania, turning a Malian crisis into a regional emergency. International partners—whether development donors or military suppliers—must now weigh their support for Bamako’s sovereignty against the imperative of protecting critical cross-border assets.
The disconnect between the army’s operational claims and the lived reality of a capital under siege underscores the unprecedented nature of this conflict phase. JNIM is no longer content with territorial control—it seeks to suffocate the state itself.
