Cameroon is currently preparing one of its most significant external financing operations since its January 2026 Eurobond. According to the monthly public debt report for June 2026, issued by the Caisse Autonome d’Amortissement (CAA), the state aims to raise $690 million, equivalent to nearly 400 billion FCFA, through an ESG-compliant bond targeting international investors. However, this crucial operation unfolds against a political backdrop that could influence market perceptions, notably the prolonged absence of President Paul Biya—a factor traditionally considered by global investors in their sovereign risk assessments.
The head of state has not been seen publicly since June 7, 2026, when authorities announced his departure for a “brief private stay” in Switzerland. By July 30, this absence had become the longest observed since his 1982 ascent to power, sparking renewed speculation within Cameroon regarding President Biya’s status.
Authorities have consistently refuted these rumors. The Minister of Communication, René Emmanuel Sadi, asserted that “the president is in good health and working from Geneva, where he currently resides. Information claiming otherwise is pure fantasy and malicious manipulation designed to destabilize public opinion.”
Despite these declarations, questions persist. Several opposition leaders have called for greater transparency regarding the president’s situation or have raised concerns about an institutional vacuum. For international investors, these debates primarily fuel their assessment of political risk, a criterion examined alongside macroeconomic fundamentals and budgetary indicators.
Rating agencies closely monitor political risk
Analyses published by credit rating agencies reveal that this issue is not a recent development. In its November 15, 2024, report, Fitch Ratings noted that “political instability will be a major factor influencing Cameroon’s sovereign rating. President Paul Biya’s age, his longevity in power since 1982, and the absence of a succession plan exacerbate the risk of a disorderly power transition.” The agency had maintained a B rating with a negative outlook at that time.
On May 9, 2025, Fitch reaffirmed this rating, citing “growing political tensions ahead of elections,” persistent fragility in budgetary governance, and ongoing shortcomings in public finance management. Moody’s presented a similar analysis in February 2024, stating that “political destabilization risks linked to the absence of a credible presidential succession plan” justified maintaining the Caa rating, while cautioning that “a chaotic transition could lead to delays in debt payments.”
Standard & Poor’s also highlighted this vulnerability in its March 21, 2025, analysis. The agency recalled that “Cameroon has been led since 1982 by President Paul Biya, who, at 92, is expected to seek an eighth term in the October 2025 presidential election,” adding that the concentration of power and the lack of a historical precedent for presidential transition fostered a high level of uncertainty.
Nevertheless, the constitutional reform of April 2026 prompted Fitch to partially revise its assessment. In its latest evaluation, the agency believes that “the risk of a disorderly power transition in Cameroon has diminished, without disappearing entirely, following the April 2026 constitutional reform that created the position of vice-president. However, it is not yet clear who will occupy this role, and risks persist given a fragmented sociopolitical environment.”
Markets have already demonstrated their sensitivity to such signals. In early October 2024, rumors announcing Paul Biya’s demise led to a sell-off of dollar-denominated Cameroonian sovereign bonds. These securities recorded a third consecutive session of decline “due to uncertainty regarding President Biya’s health.”
Thys Louw, a manager at Ninety One UK Ltd, noted that “President Biya has concentrated a lot of power around himself, and a succession crisis could trigger significant market volatility.” Similarly, Sam Singh-Jami, Africa strategist at Rand Merchant Bank, believed that “political uncertainty could challenge the country’s ability to maintain its fiscal policy and honor its commitments to international creditors.”
Strengths to reassure investors
The political context, however, is merely one of many criteria considered by international investors. Growth prospects, the trajectory of public debt, the quality of sovereign credit, and credit enhancement mechanisms designed to secure the operation also play a decisive role in their assessment.
To enhance the risk profile of this issuance and boost its attractiveness, Cameroon is leveraging several international partners. The operation is structured with the support of Matha Capital, serving as financial advisor; the African Development Bank (AfDB); the African Trade Insurance Agency (ATIDI), a multilateral institution specializing in trade and investment risk coverage; and the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), a pan-African financial institution focused on infrastructure financing. The involvement of these partners aims to reinforce the issuance’s credibility among investors, particularly those specializing in sustainable finance.
Strong economic fundamentals also present favorable arguments. In its latest rating, Fitch forecasts average growth of 3.7% in 2026 and 2027, anticipates a reduction in the public debt-to-GDP ratio to 40.2% by 2027, and highlights Cameroon’s success in mobilizing $750 million on international markets in January 2026 through a widely subscribed Eurobond.
The agency nonetheless underscores that investors will continue to evaluate several factors, including developments in governance, public finance management, arrears clearance, the conclusion of a new program with the International Monetary Fund, and the political context. Just months before this new international issuance, Paul Biya’s prolonged absence thus represents an additional element likely to influence Cameroon’s sovereign risk perception. While not, by itself, jeopardizing the country’s ability to raise funds on international markets, it could impact the terms under which investors agree to finance this operation.
