A significant political shift is unfolding in Senegal, marked by the recent dismissal of Ousmane Sonko and his government by President Bassirou Diomaye Faye on Friday, May 22. This move signals a profound change in the nation’s leadership dynamics. Just two days later, on Sunday, the former Prime Minister reclaimed his parliamentary seat. Concurrently, Malick Ndiaye, the President of the National Assembly, announced his resignation. The election for the new Assembly President is scheduled for Tuesday, with Ousmane Sonko emerging as a strong contender. All indications point towards an escalating power struggle between the executive and legislative branches of government.
Many observers believe this separation between Faye and Sonko was inevitable. The collaboration between the two leaders, according to some analyses, contained an inherent and insurmountable contradiction. It wasn’t a matter of differing talents or fundamentally divergent political ideologies. Rather, the very nature of executive power in a republic is singular, not a dual improvisation. Historical precedents across Africa, from figures like Nkrumah to Sankara, and Modibo Keïta to Laurent-Désiré Kabila, consistently demonstrate that shared leadership at the highest levels, where two equally strong wills coexist, invariably results in the displacement of one or the downfall of both.
From initial cracks to a full rupture
Indeed, this recent development is the culmination of months of underlying tensions between the two men who ascended to power in April 2024 amidst widespread popular hope. The political rift had been brewing since last July, when the first signs of discord emerged within the ruling partnership. At that time, Ousmane Sonko publicly referenced a “problem of authority,” suggesting the President was not adequately defending him against political attacks. The definitive break occurred mere hours after a National Assembly session dedicated to current affairs, where the former head of government openly challenged several presidential decisions, notably concerning the management of political funds, asserting that the President had “made a mistake.”
An executive-legislative showdown?
The question now arises: has the former Prime Minister positioned himself as the President’s primary opponent? Given his considerable popularity, Ousmane Sonko undeniably poses a significant challenge to Bassirou Diomaye Faye. The next phase of this political contest is widely expected to play out within the National Assembly. Moussa Diaw, a professor of political science at Gaston-Berger University in Saint-Louis, suggests that “the political battle is likely to shift to the National Assembly, becoming a power struggle between the head of state and the legislature.” He highlights the substantial risk of governmental paralysis, particularly as the executive aims to implement a series of institutional reforms. Key legislative texts on constitutional revision, the Constitutional Court, political parties, and the establishment of an independent national electoral commission are slated for presentation before the National Assembly soon. This scenario would leave the head of state with very limited room for maneuver.
As noted in Ouagadougou, this situation essentially pits Pastef, the party controlled by Ousmane Sonko, against the presidential coalition led by Diomaye Faye. This executive versus legislative conflict promises a fierce struggle for power, with the communal elections of 2027 and, more importantly, the presidential election of 2029 firmly in sight. Among young Senegalese who had placed their faith in the Faye-Sonko duo, there is now palpable uncertainty, frustration, and a sense of disillusionment, leaving them unsure of where to turn.
Could Ousmane Sonko emerge victorious?
The test of strength has begun, and it could ultimately favor Ousmane Sonko, according to Adrien Poussou, a former Central African Minister of Communication and geopolitical analyst. Poussou asserts that the current political reality in Senegal remains undeniable: Pastef holds significant national influence, backed by an exceptional grassroots presence, a mobilized youth base, and a powerful narrative forged during years of confrontation with the regime of Macky Sall. Within this dynamic, Sonko continues to be the central figure. Even when hindered by legal challenges or absent from presidential ballots, it was around him that the hope for change crystallized. While President Faye possesses institutional legitimacy, his former Prime Minister retains formidable popular and militant legitimacy. In any future political or electoral confrontation, this factor could prove decisive.
