The AFC/M23 rebellion, which maintains control over vast areas of North Kivu and South Kivu provinces, continues to receive substantial military backing from the Rwandan Defence Forces (RDF). This support extends to both their operational activities and the fortification of their positions across the battleground in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. These findings have been underscored, once again, by a recent report from a United Nations Group of Experts, submitted to the Security Council Committee on May 8, 2026, and subsequently reviewed on June 5, 2026.

Our examination of this document reveals that the expert group has meticulously documented the persistent presence of RDF personnel and the continuous arrival of reinforcements in both North Kivu and South Kivu. The report also highlights their active engagement on multiple fronts, leveraging advanced military technologies, state-of-the-art equipment, and sophisticated air warfare capabilities. According to the same document, the RDF has consistently provided operational assistance to the AFC/M23, demonstrating a swift deployment capacity for highly specialized assets, including drones, electronic warfare tools, and elite special forces units.

The expert assessment further indicates that RDF operations have been conducted in regions where no presence of FDLR forces had been reported, notably in Uvira. This observation directly challenges Kigali’s justification for its military intervention, which it frames as legitimate self-defense measures.

By December 2025, the deployment of RDF personnel in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo was conservatively estimated at 8,000 to 10,000 troops in South Kivu and 6,000 to 8,000 in North Kivu. Crucially, the report noted no significant signs of withdrawal thereafter. Subsequent troop movements primarily involved rotations and further reinforcements, a pattern that persisted up to the time the report was compiled.

As previously detailed, the RDF has been observed occupying strategic forward positions, spearheading offensives, and establishing operational corridors to benefit the M23. The UN experts affirmed that every M23 combat unit operated under the supervision and direct support of the RDF.

“RDF personnel were integrated into mixed battalions alongside M23 elements, specifically including commando units originating from Bigogwe, Rubavu, and Cyangugu. More recently, RDF elements deployed in the Democratic Republic of Congo have adopted M23 uniforms to evade detection. For similar reasons, troop movements were predominantly carried out under the cover of night,” the United Nations Group of Experts detailed in their comprehensive report. 

This latest report from the UN expert group emerges amidst a backdrop of escalating insecurity and a worsening humanitarian crisis in eastern DRC. This deterioration persists despite the existence of the Washington Agreement and a series of subsequent evaluation meetings. Tensions between Kinshasa and Kigali remain high, with each side offering differing interpretations of the Washington Agreement’s provisions, rendering its implementation complex and challenging one year after its ministerial-level signing.

A similar stalemate plagues the Doha process, facilitated by the State of Qatar. Despite multiple rounds of discussions, Kinshasa and the Rwandan-backed Alliance du Fleuve Congo (AFC)/M23 rebellion have struggled to reconcile their core differences. The Montreux stage in Switzerland, intended to inject new momentum into these negotiations, failed to achieve its desired outcomes. Commitments stemming from this phase of talks have not been fully honored, and the deteriorating security situation in the Middle East has further overshadowed this critical dossier, thereby slowing mediation efforts.