Three years following the strategic military realignment with Russia in the aftermath of the July 2023 coup, Niger continues to grapple with an escalating jihadist insurgency. Despite the transitional authorities’ stated objective of restoring security through this shift, coordinated assaults on military outposts have intensified, inflicting severe losses on the nation’s defense and security forces.
Unrelenting violence despite new alliances
In a series of devastating attacks spanning several days, at least 265 Nigerien soldiers were killed in coordinated strikes against multiple military positions. These assaults rank among the deadliest encountered in recent memory, underscoring the persistent—and worsening—security crisis.
The pivot toward Moscow, marked by the deployment of Russian military instructors and the gradual withdrawal of Western partners, has yet to yield a sustainable improvement in the security landscape. Observers report that since 2023, the frequency and intensity of violent incidents have not declined; rather, they have escalated in both scale and lethality.
Rising civilian casualties amid deteriorating conditions
Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) indicates that in 2023, Niger recorded approximately 225 recorded attacks—mirroring the previous year’s figures but accompanied by a stark 27% increase in fatalities. This alarming trend has only deepened over time.
By 2025, the humanitarian assessment agency ACAPS documented a record 700 civilian deaths, more than double the toll recorded in 2023, signaling a severe deterioration in the security environment. Despite repeated assurances from military leadership that territorial control would be reclaimed, insecurity remains entrenched.
Hotspots of insurgency persist
The regions of Tillabéri, Tahoua, and the border areas with Mali and Burkina Faso continue to serve as epicenters for militant activity, primarily driven by factions linked to the Islamic State and the Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM).
Notable incidents include the fatal ambush of over 60 soldiers in Tabatol in October 2023, the killing of 23 troops in a Tillabéri ambush in March 2024, and a relentless spate of attacks targeting convoys, villages, and military installations.
Evaluating the new security partnership
These recurring crises have ignited discussions regarding the efficacy of Niger’s revised security partnership. Three years after the geopolitical and military pivot, the jihadist threat remains undiminished, placing immense strain on the operational capabilities of the Nigerien armed forces.
