The Sahelian belt, a vast geographical expanse stretching from Mali to Chad, presents a complex geopolitical and economic landscape, far from a booming investment hub. Nations like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger grapple with significant developmental hurdles. Mali, for instance, faces a youthful population (47% under 15 out of 25.9 million), limited arable land (only 25%), and ranks 188th out of 193 countries on the UNDP’s Human Development Index, with nearly 45% of its populace living below the poverty line. Burkina Faso and Niger exhibit similar struggles, with 40% and 60.5% of their populations, respectively, below the poverty threshold, according to World Bank data. These landlocked nations are currently under military rule, having formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) with tacit backing from the Kremlin, aiming to diminish residual French influence. Despite their anti-French, anti-Western, and anti-democratic rhetoric promising prosperity, this has yet to materialize for their citizens. Amidst these challenges, two neighboring countries, Algeria and Morocco, are actively extending their services and influence in the region.
Morocco: an atlantic gateway
Morocco is advancing a significant infrastructure project with the construction of the Dakhla Atlantic port, envisioning it as a vital hub for West Africa, akin to its Tanger Med port for Europe, but strategically positioned in the Western Sahara and offering a direct route to the Americas. Scheduled for completion by 2028 and operational the following year, this port aims to provide essential ocean access, effectively disenclaving Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Rabat has hosted the three AES leaders to discuss this proposition, which includes a potential railway line (yet to be confirmed) connecting to the port. The primary goal is to stimulate economic growth within these landlocked nations. For Morocco, which faces geographical isolation due to its ongoing dispute with Algeria, this initiative serves multiple strategic purposes: demonstrating that its Western Sahara development plan benefits the entire sub-region, and indirectly combating jihadist groups plaguing the Sahel by offering hope and opportunities to a rapidly growing, disenfranchised youth population. The Sahel’s birth rate is accelerating, projecting a doubling of its population within a decade.
Algeria: a trans-saharan gas pipeline to europe
After a period of strained relations, Algeria re-established friendly ties with Niger in mid-February, engaging with Abderrahmane Tiani, the head of Niger’s military government. Algiers proposed initiating the construction of the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline’s Nigerien segment shortly after Ramadan concludes. This ambitious 4800-kilometer project, originating in Nigeria, would now traverse Niger before reaching Algeria, ultimately supplying natural gas to European markets. Sonatrach, Algeria’s national hydrocarbons company, would oversee construction within Niger and commit to training Nigerien personnel for its operation. This commitment to local capacity building stands in contrast to approaches by other foreign actors, such as China, who often do not prioritize local training in the management of national resources.
two complementary yet clashing strategies
Discussions in Madrid and Washington (February 23-24) have recently focused on Morocco’s autonomy plan for the Western Sahara. Should this five-decade-long conflict finally resolve, Algeria and Morocco could potentially collaborate on the Sahel’s urgent security and demographic challenges. Such cooperation would prevent AES states from exploiting the existing rivalries between the two regional powers.
Jihadism thrives on the twin scourges of poverty and authoritarian governance. Both Algiers and Rabat are independently striving to disrupt this destructive cycle. Each leverages its unique strengths: Algeria offers its hydrocarbon resources and Sonatrach’s technical expertise, while Morocco champions its grand infrastructure projects and its vision as a continental hub connecting Africa, America, and Europe. These two strategies, despite their inherent complementarity, remain unfortunately at odds due to the enduring Western Sahara dispute.
*On September 26, 2025, Mali’s Prime Minister, Abdoulaye Maïga, accused Algeria of “supporting international terrorism.” In response, Ahmed Attaf, Algeria’s Foreign Minister, denounced these remarks as “soudard’s logorrhea.”*
