In Mali, the blockade enforced by the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM)—an al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadist group—has escalated to a new level. Over the weekend, at least a dozen buses were set ablaze along the critical supply route connecting Ségou to Bamako, the primary corridor feeding the capital from eastern regions. Simultaneously, electrical infrastructure linked to the Manantali hydroelectric dam in the Kayes region was deliberately targeted and destroyed. While Malian armed forces continue operations across multiple fronts, they have yet to break the economic stranglehold gripping the country.
Manantali: the strategic heart of a war of attrition
The assault on Manantali is far from incidental. The dam, managed under a tripartite agreement involving Mauritania and Senegal through the Senegal River Basin Development Organization (OMVS), serves as a cornerstone of Mali’s power grid. By striking its transmission lines, JNIM is no longer targeting just defense and security forces—it is directly undermining the backbone of urban life, where blackouts immediately paralyze public services, businesses, and industries.
This tactic follows weeks of relentless strikes on fuel convoys entering from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. By weaponizing fuel shortages, the jihadists aim to erode public support for the transitional government led by General Assimi Goïta. Bamako, once relatively insulated from the worst violence, has now become the epicenter of a grinding campaign of exhaustion.
Military pushback and fragile supply lines
The Malian armed forces claim to have sustained ground and air operations across several regions. In recent days, military escorts have facilitated the entry of hundreds of tanker trucks into Bamako, temporarily easing the pressure on gas stations under siege. Yet this respite is fleeting—each convoy demands massive resources, and securing national highways over the long term remains an unattainable goal for now.
The Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) face a daunting dilemma. In the west and central zones, JNIM has intensified ambushes and infrastructure sabotage. Further north, in the Kidal region, tensions remain frozen in a brittle stalemate, with fresh clashes likely as rebel factions within the Cadre Stratégique Permanent regroup. The government in Bamako is thus stretched thin, juggling priorities across two distinct battlefields with dwindling manpower and matériel.
Regional tensions rise as blockade spills beyond borders
The effects of Mali’s blockade are no longer confined within its borders. Neighboring economies—Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d’Ivoire—are watching with growing alarm as trade corridors across West Africa deteriorate. Slowing cargo flows are straining ports in Dakar and Abidjan, where a significant share of goods once transited toward the Sahelian hinterland. The Alliance of Sahel States, comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has yet to forge a cohesive response to the economic warfare being waged by jihadist networks.
The attack on Manantali also raises urgent questions about shared regional assets under OMVS management. Escalating damage could directly disrupt electricity supply to Senegal and Mauritania, turning a Malian crisis into a cross-border emergency. External partners—whether development lenders or military suppliers—are now forced to weigh their commitments to Bamako’s sovereignty against the need to protect critical transnational infrastructure.
On the ground, the gap between the army’s operational claims and the reality of a capital under siege underscores the unprecedented nature of this conflict phase. JNIM isn’t merely holding territory—it is choking the state itself.
